With Benfica drawing at home against Sporting Braga and Sporting winning away to Rio Ave, the Lions have leapfrogged their eternal rivals in the race for Champions League qualification, climbing to second place with a two-point lead (79 vs 77). This means the green-and-whites secure a spot in the Champions League third qualifying round if they match Benfica’s result in the final matchday. At the very least, they could afford a loss or draw, provided the Eagles fail to win at Estoril. José Mourinho’s side, on the other hand, must win and hope Sporting do not triumph away to Gil Vicente.
As for Sporting Braga, they secured fourth place on Monday night, guaranteeing a place in the second qualifying round of the Conference League. However, they still have a chance to reach the Europa League. Here’s how: if Sporting win the Portuguese Cup, a domino effect occurs. Benfica would enter the Europa League league phase directly, Braga would claim the second qualifying round of the Europa League, and the Conference League spot would shift to fifth place, currently occupied by Famalicão. Hugo Oliveira’s team sits on 53 points, three ahead of Gil Vicente, but Barcelos’ side holds the head-to-head advantage. For this situation to reverse, Gil must win at Alvalade and hope Famalicão lose to Alverca.
A goal that reshuffles the relegation battle
How a single goal can change the entire relegation perspective. Larrazabal scored in the 87th minute to give Casa Pia victory away to Vitória de Guimarães, and those three points sent them into the final matchday in the playoff spot, pushing Tondela to second-to-last and ‘stealing’ Nacional’s survival party.
Let’s break down the numbers:
– **Nacional** lost to Santa Clara and remain on 31 points. They avoid direct relegation because they have the head-to-head advantage over **Tondela** (28 points). They host Vitória de Guimarães on the final day, and a draw ensures they stay in the Betclic Liga, as they hold the advantage in a three-way tie with **Estrela da Amadora** (29) and **Casa Pia** (29).
– **Estrela da Amadora** also enters the decisive round outside the danger zone with 29 points, but face a tough trip to Braga. Since they have the head-to-head edge over **Casa Pia** (29), a win guarantees survival. They also stay up if they match (or better) the results of both Casa Pia and **Tondela** (28).
– **Casa Pia** (29), who shuffled all calculations in the final minutes, host Rio Ave. A win at least avoids direct relegation, but could also mean survival if **Estrela** fail to win. They risk direct relegation if they lose and **Tondela** (28) win.
There’s a scenario where we finish with **Estrela**, **Casa Pia**, and **Tondela** all on 29 points. In this three-way tie, Nacional guarantees survival, Tondela ends up in the playoff, and Casa Pia go down.
– **Tondela** secure survival if they win and both Casa Pia and Estrela fail to win. They claim the playoff spot if they better Estrela’s result, holding the head-to-head advantage.
